BOOKERISTAS AND POLITICS: What Research Reveals About Black Conservatives

The recent Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies poll shows very interesting dynamics. What’s been overlooked by all media:

1. self-identification: 27% of blacks identify as conservative - 20% as Christian conservative, 7% as secular conservative. The 27% figure is unchanged from 2002. While a minority, it's hardly a “small” one.

2. black conservative vs. black Republican: A solid majority of black conservatives are Democrats, so the terms aren't synonymous. Think Rep. Sanford Bishop Jr. (D-Ga.), not GOPAC chair J.C. Watts.

3. who they plan to vote for: 63% of secular conservatives support Sen. John Kerry, 29% President Bush, 0% Ralph Nader. 49% of Christian conservatives support Sen. Kerry, 36% President Bush, and 4% Mr. Nader.

Black Christian conservative support for Sen. Kerry is 20 points behind that of Al Gore in October 2000, when 69% supported him. Black secular conservative support for Sen. Kerry is down 9 points, when 72% supported Al Gore. Bush has almost tripled his support among black secular conservatives (10% to 29%). He has more than tripled his support among black Christian conservatives (from 11% in October 2000, to 36% now). These are key factors in recent polls showing his significant bump in overall black support.

4. President Bush’s job performance: Among all black Americans, it's most positive among self-identified black conservatives, both secular (33% good or excellent, 66% fair or poor) and Christian (35% good or excellent, 65% fair or poor). However, even these subgroups don’t give majority approval to his job performance. Plenty of dissatisfaction here.

5. likeability - Bush vs. Kerry: Only two black subgroups like President Bush. 50% of Christian conservatives like him, 47% don't, and 3% don’t know. So while black Christian conservatives dislike his job performance, they like him as a person. The other group was black Republicans, of whom 91% like him. A slight majority secular conservatives don't like him. Most black conservatives - both secular and Christian - view Sen. John Kerry favorably, but the percentages are significantly lower than for Al Gore in 2000.

6. life is better off, same, or worse than four years ago: A plural majority of both secular conservatives (36%) and Christian conservatives (47%) say their lives remain the same. 34% of secular conservatives and 28% of Christian conservatives say they're better off. Only 30% of secular conservatives and 20% of Christian conservatives say they're better off. The fact that a plural majority of these black subgroups say their lives are the same since 2000 may explain Bush's bump in the polls among black voters.

7. country headed in right or wrong direction: 59% of Christian conservatives and 57% of secular conservatives say it's headed in the wrong direction. 30% and 29% respectively say it's in the right direction. 15% of secular conservatives and 11% of Christian conservatives are unsure. The JCPES poll doesn't delve into whether economic or moral issues (or both) influence folks's views on this question.

8. Congress’s performance: 67% of secular conservatives rate its performance as fair or poor, vs. 27% who rate it good or excellent. 66% of Christian conservatives rate its performance as fair or poor, vs. 27% good or excellent. Hence, most black conservatives ain't pleased with the Republican-controlled Congress. However, 32% of secular conservatives and 31% of Christian conservatives plan to vote for the GOP candidate in Congressional races (65% and 56% respectively for the Democratic candidate).

9. gay marriage: The black subgroup most opposed to any legal recognition for gay marriage were black Christian conservatives (62%). Another possible factor in Bush's tripled support among this black subgroup.

This research suggests that black conservative activists need new tactics. Most self-identified black conservatives appear to be socially conservative, but not economically conservative. Black conservative activists typically seek to get more blacks to vote Republican. Research shows an uphill battle even among their target subgroups. Perhaps because of economic issue differences, probably because Republicans are perceived to be weak on civil rights and are anti-black.

A pragmatic goal may have to be to increase the percentage of self-identified black conservatives in the Democratic column. After all, Reagan Democrats were first conservative Democrats before they crossed party lines. Black conservative activists must craft bipartisan efforts that resonate with self-identified black conservatives - both Republican and Democratic - for maximum effectiveness. That may mean working with groups like the Democratic Leadership Council. We'll explore this issue in Part III.

Next: What Research Reveals About Black Moderates