PLEZ COMMENTARY: The Last 2008 Democratic Primary

The moderate-liberal Democratic blogger - who is attending a primary finale party for Sen. Barack Obama tonight in Atlanta, Ga. - opines: "The fat lady is testing her vocal chords for the final aria of this very long and drawn out primary season for the Democratic Party. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have scrapped for every delegate's vote in all fifty states dating back to early November of last year. Clinton entered 2008 riding a wave of popularity and name recognition. Obama entered 2008 riding a grassroots organization that is unparalleled in scope. He won early. He won often. She won late... and by all accounts, much too late. He had a strategy to energize the electorate and bring in new voters. She had a strategy to ride the Clinton name and have the nomination in hand by Super Tuesday... unfortunately for Clinton, the race has extended four months after Super Tuesday! The race has been a drama of contrast and style and delivery. Often ugly. Often divisive. A sweet victory has yet to be found. There have been cries of foul. There have been allegations of classism, sexism, elitism, even racism. There has been discord. And even the whisper of assassination."

He continues his commentary: "But it all comes to an end today, Tuesday, June 3rd. The 49th and 50th states will have their say, like the forty-eight before them. Back in America's heartland, the scene of so many Obama victories before them, South Dakota and Montana will cast their lot at the feet of the next President of the United States. Michigan and Florida have been resolved. The pledged delegate totals continue to tilt toward Obama. The remaining superdelegates stand at the ready to pledge their support, but only after South Dakota and Montana have had their say. And most polls predict that these two states will say, 'Obama.'"

My response: Yes, my prediction long ago that Sen. Hillary Clinton would secure the Democratic nomination is looking like a very, very wrong prediction. However, even if Sen. Obama wins both states tonight, he still won't have enough pledged delegates in order to claim the nomination. It should be pointed out that superdelegates can change their vote as many times as they wish until they vote at the Democratic National Convention. Thus, while Sen. Obama will be the de facto nominee, he will not in fact be the nominee because he will be just shy in pledged delegates. the Thus, I predict Sen. Clinton will not formally end her campaign to keep her options open. Until Sen. Obama secures the nomination outright at the convention or Sen. Clinton formally ends her campaign, I'm not conceding defeat re: my prediction and doing an "I Was Wrong" post just yet. Sen. Obama has run a great campaign though. By the way, Sen. Clinton's campaign should not be tripping about the Florida and Michigan delegate breakdown that went her way over the weekend. While she had a strong case re: the Florida delegates, she shouldn't have gotten any Michigan delegates because Sen. Obama wasn't even on the ballot there. Sen. Obama was too kind on that front.