The moderate Republican political analyst and blogger writes: "As the electoral map stands today, Senator Obama has a double digit lead or a low single digit lead in the polls. We stated about 6 weeks ago, that the polls mattered most this weekend before the election. Senator Obama has a comfortable enough lead that even if he loses 6 points due to the so-called 'Bradley factor' -- he will still win by 2 or 3 points. Our prediction for the popular vote is Obama 52-48% -- and in the [E]lectoral [C]ollege Obama will break 300. If McCain wins the best we can see him doing is 51% or he could lose the popular vote and win the [E]lectoral [C]ollege. Let's hope that does not happen or we will be back in 2000 territory."
She continues: "Again, look at 4 states that will close at 7PM EST on election night: Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. If 3 out of 4 stay in McCain's column it is going to be a long night. If Ohio and Pennsylvania go for McCain but he loses Indiana and Virginia -- look to Florida & North Carolina if they break for Obama it is over. Anyway this shakes out, all Obama has to do is hold the 2004 Kerry map and pick-up [sic] just one of the red states or two -- Virginia and North Carolina for instance. It is an uphill climb for John McCain, but watch and see how the independents vote -- and for the black turnout."
My prediction: I can see Obama breaking 300 in the Electoral College. However, I predict that, should Sen. Obama win, he will not get the majority of the popular vote. Neither will Sen. McCain, if he wins. 50.0% or lower for either candidate.
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