Alabama: Race And Davis

Hastings Wyman of Southern Political Report discusses Rep. Artur Davis's (pictured) bid to become Alabama's first black governor. Rep. Davis hopes to replicate President Barack Obama’s success by combining high turnout and near-unanimous support among black voters with a larger-than-normal share of the white vote: "On the plus side, Davis, 42, is an attractive candidate. He is a well-spoken moderate who can persuasively defend his sometimes controversial views, such as voting no on the House health care bill. He has managed to represent the business community in Birmingham at the same time he carries water for the district’s large (64%) African-American population -- and he gets strong support at the ballot box from each group. National Journal gave him a 55% liberal, 45% conservative rating for 2008, quite moderate for a Democrat in this mostly Republican -- and mostly rightwing -- state. On the down side, however, Davis faces a much more polarized electorate than Obama did last year. The Democrats’ domestic agenda, including health care reform, curbs on carbon emissions, and massive increases in spending, have not been popular here, and it is doubtful that today Obama could match the 39% he received in 2008 (compared to John Kerry’s 37% in 2004). And while Davis's moderation -- highlighted by his vote against the health care [b]ill -- is noteworthy, the GOP can be expected to paint Davis has much too liberal for Alabama. Marty Connors, former chairman of the state Republican Party, says that Davis's 'voting record is almost a mirror for the Obama Administration, with a couple of exceptions.'"

Mr. Wyman continues his commentary about Rep. Davis's gubernatorial campaign: "If the GOP paints Davis as too liberal, some Democratic politicos, including some African-American leaders, are complaining that Davis's moderation is not in the interest of his core constituency. Former Birmingham Mayor Richard Arrington, 75, has criticized Davis. So has Alabama Education Association (AEA) official Joe Reed, 72, who focused his latest attack on Davis's vote against the health care reform bill, noting that he was 'the only black congressman in the nation to oppose it...You cannot curse bubba and Cooter, Big Man, and June Bug in the daytime and beg them at night.' Notably, Jesse Jackson also criticized Davis's vote, but in less colorful terms. Several factors may explain some of the old-line black opposition to Davis. Part of this may be self-serving. The rise of Davis, with support among whites as well as blacks, may threaten the influence of some of the old-time leaders, whose strategy has been to use black political power to persuade the white establishment to provide favorable treatment for African Americans in the state. In much the same way, Obama’s rise eclipsed the influence of, or at least the public focus on, such black leaders as Jackson and Al Sharpton. Moreover, Davis and the AEA have been at odds on several key issues, including charter schools -- Davis for them, AEA is against them. There is also a theory that Democratic leaders, regardless of race. are frightened at the prospect of Davis leading their ticket, losing badly, and hurting them down-ticket. In particular, Davis could run poorly in North Alabama, where Obama ran poorly last year, costing Democrats a number of seats in -- and possibly control of -- the legislature, both House and Senate."

More: "In an interview with SPR, [Democrat and former Congressman Glen] Browder notes he can 'see a precise scenario where Davis could win,' involving an easy primary victory for Davis, a divisive GOP primary with an outcome that antagonizes moderate voters, and a strong Davis campaign aimed at the center. The former lawmaker turned professor and author says, however, 'Overall, I’d give the edge to the Republicans, simply because Alabama has made the shift to the Red column for some time now.' But Browder gives high marks to many of the candidates in both parties: 'The state could end up with the best choice for governor in a long, long time.'"