Jonetta Rose Barras, a moderate commentator in Washington, D.C., argues that folks are premature in counting Mayor Adrian Fenty out on a successful re-election: "In recent weeks, District political observers and others, who might be called the 'anybody-but-Fenty” crowd, have been fed a veritable feast of surveys and polls, providing assessments of the 2010 mayoral race through the numbers. In a Clarus Research Group survey of 501 registered District voters, 41 percent of the respondents indicated they would support Gray for mayor while only 37 percent said they would re-elect Fenty. This week, a Metropolitan Washington Council of the AFL-CIO survey, conducted by Ron Lester, a national [D]emocratic pollster, echoed the Clarus report. The union polled 500 registered and likely voters. In a head-to-head, 43 percent of the respondents said they would vote for Gray while 39 percent chose Fenty. The margin of error is 3.9 percent."
She continues her commentary: "Both polls are interesting. Neither actually asks voters to consider Fenty against individuals who actually have declared their mayoral candidacy. What is former NBC reporter Leo Alexander — chopped liver? But Councilmen Kwame Brown and Michael Brown’s potentials are explored. Neither could whip Fenty, according to the union/Lester poll. And while millionaire R. Donahue Peebles is trash talking about what he would or wouldn’t do in a mayoral race, the union’s poll indicates Fenty would wipe the floor with him; 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Fenty; only 21 percent selected Peebles. In other words, despite media reports of his death, Fenty remains very much alive. In each poll, his numbers and Gray’s fall within the margin of error. That essentially mean they are tied."
Polls And The D.C. Mayor's Race
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3 comments:
Let us wait and see! One interesting note, Sulaimon Brown-Democrat for DC Mayor, appeared on Jonetta's show and was the first candidate to register and challenge Fenty, but it's interesting to me that she declined to mention him in her article, but complained of the polls not mentioning him and Alexander. Maybe Jonetta has abandoned her ethics and is supporting the Fenty campaign secretly. Jonetta should be ashamed of herself.
I'll get concerned about Fenty losing when a more scientific poll is done that reflects voter turnout for primary elections (turnout is worst in the areas where Fenty support is lowest and voter turnout is hightest in areas where Fenty has highest levels of support). At this point, Fenty is well positioned to stay in office. Peebles is an easy shoot down as corrupt, and Gray is running on a platform of...hmm, 'I'm not Fenty' which doesn't hold much water against the progress on public safety, city efficiency (great snow removal!), and progress in our schools (this is supported along the same lines as voter turnout).
I beg to differ. D.C.'s black population wants Fenty gone - out - axed! D.C. is still very much a largely African-American populated city and in the community people are going to turn out for Gray - yes becaue he is not Fenty. Wonders never cease to amaze me how the black vote is is always sooo underestimated. Gray only needs 17% of white voters to win based on recent polling. For Fenty to be this challenged now speaks in volumes about how residents feel about him.
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