Earlier this year, Britain showed that 2010 was the Year Of The Black Conservative. Will the Republican Party match or surpass what Britain's Conservative Party did this year? The Brits went from one black conservative in the House of Commons, to four black conservatives (this excludes the black conservative in the appointed House of Lords). In USA, there were 37 black Republican candidates for Congress. However, only 15 of them garnered their party's nomination in the primary election and thus remain. Patriot PAC has endorsed these 15 candidates in its Operation Black Storm project. The media has discussed the GOP's rising black stars. Others cite the tea party movement is a key reason for the rise, and see history-making on Election Day.
On the Democratic side, there are three moderates or moderate-liberals running for Congress. Two are incumbents and one is a challenger.
Running In A Safe District; Extremely Likely To Win
David Scott, 64 — "The New Democrat"
Atlanta, Georgia | U.S. Congressman | Moderate-Liberal Democrat
Rep. Scott is chillin' this election cycle because he is in a strongly Democratic district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+15) in Atlanta metro. His re-election is a foregone conclusion. Although he took flak for voting for Obamacare after a highly publicized confrontation with a constituent (including a swastika spray painted at his congressional office in Georgia painted by anonymous folks), he only has token opposition.
Background: Rep. Scott is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition (moderate and conservative House Democrats) and New Democrat Coalition (centrist House Democrats). He also owns a billboard advertising company. Rep. Scott has a Bachelor's degree in finance from Florida A&M University (where he pledged Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity), and an MBA from the University of Pennsylvania.
Georgia, 13th Congressional District Demographics: 92.08% urban, 7.92% rural. 47.0% white, 44.1% black, 10.1% Hispanic, 5.1% Asian, 0.3% Native American, 0.1% other. Median household income: $43,429.
Campaign: Rep. Scott has campaigned on a platform of public education, increasing government involvement in health care, public transportation, and health care. Yes, he is a fiscal liberal and social liberal. However, he is a moderate on foreign policy issues.
Possible Historic Impact: Continuing to be one of the very few black Congressmen who represent a plural-majority white district.
Tim Scott, 45 — "The Local Politician"
Charleston, South Carolina | South Carolina House of Representatives | Conservative Republican
He might as well start ordering his Congressional letterhead. Mr. Scott is running in a Republican-dominant district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+10) that hasn't had a Democratic congressional rep since 1981. In the Republican primary, he beat two scions of South Carolina politics: the son of the infamous late Sen. Strom Thurmond and the son of former South Carolina Governor Carroll Campbell Jr. (and six other candidates). His opponent in the general election is a black liberal Democrat who has perennially run for office and raised little money for his candidacy.
Background: Besides serving in the South Carolina House of Representatives since 2008, Mr. Scott is an insurance agency owner and a partner in Pathway Real Estate Group LLC. Mr. Scott served on the Charleston County Council for 13 years. He has a B.A. in political science from Charleston Southern University.
South Carolina, 1st Congressional District Demographics: Mostly urban. 74.8% white, 21.1% black, 2.5% Hispanic, 1.3% Asian, 0.4% Native American, 0.2% other. Median household income: $40,713.
Campaign: Mr. Scott has campaigned on a platform of limited government, lower taxes and government spending, repealing Obamacare, and cracking down on illegal immigration. He is a tea party movement fave, and is endorsed by the fiscally conservative Club For Growth. I've noticed that his signs always note that he's a "conservative Republican', probably to undercut assumptions that because he's black that he's a liberal. Mr. Scott has raised more than $900,000 in his congressional bid. Not bad, considering he has only token opposition in next week's election.
Possible Historical Impact: Mr. Scott will probably be the one credited with being the first black Republican elected to Congress from the South since Reconstruction (since the 1870s), and the first black Republican to serve in Congress since J.C. Watts in 2003. Even if other black Republicans win on Election Day, the election returns from his district will come in first because of (1) location (East Coast) and (2) the probably wide vote margin.
Running In A Swing District; Could Win
Sanford Bishop Jr., 63 — "The Peanut Congressman"
Albany, Georgia | U.S. Congressman | Moderate-Liberal Democrat
Rep. Bishop Jr. is having a tough re-election campaign. His Republican opponent is claiming that Rep. Bishop Jr. will get a political "eviction notice" on Tuesday. He's taking heat for having voted for Obamacare, the economic stimulus, and cap and trade. Hiring relatives and diverting Congressional Black Caucus Foundation scholarship funds to relatives hasn't helped matters. Duelling polls show him neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Mike Keown. In a swing district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+1) in an anti-incumbent year, Rep. Bishop's re-election hinges on whether black Democrats turnout is comparable to that of the district's white Republican voters.
Background: Rep. Bishop Jr. has served in the U.S. Congress since 1993, where he is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition (moderate and conservative House Democrats). He previously served in the Georgia House of Representatives and Georgia Senate. Rep. Bishop Jr. is also an Army veteran who once operated a law firm. A graduate of Morehouse College (where he pledged Kappa Alpha Psi Fraternity), he has a J.D. from Emory University's School of Law.
Georgia, 2nd Congressional District Demographics: 58.66% urban, 41.34% rural. 51.4% white, 44.8% black, 3.5% Hispanic, 0.6% Asian, 0.3% Native American, and 0.1% other. Median household income: $29,354.
Campaign: Rep. Bishop Jr.has campaigned on a platform of economic populism and social moderation. In this military- and farm-heavy district, he is a staunch advocate of agricultural interests (especially peanut farmers) and military spending. Rep. Bishop Jr. has raised $1.7 million dollars for his re-election bid.
Possible Historic Impact: Rep. Bishop Jr. is currently the only black Congressman representing a majority-white district in the South. That will change this year (with Tim Scott's extremely probable victory), but Rep. Bishop Jr. will be credited for helping to pave the way.
Ryan Frazier, 33 — "The Code Cracker"
Aurora, Colorado | City Councilman |
Libertarian-Conservative Republican
In this suburban-Denver swing district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+4), polls show Mr. Frazier running neck-and-neck with incumbent Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.)
Background: A Navy veteran, Mr. Frazier used to do intelligence analysis (more specifically, cryptography) for the National Security Agency. He has also worked for Raytheon Systems, training Department of Defense personnel on national security issues. In addition to serving on the Aurora City Council (where he's been since 2003), Mr. Frazier is a partner in startup firm Takara Systems. He also co-founded a K-8 charter school (which has been criticized for accepting economic stimulus funds, while Mr. Frazier has campaigned against the issue). He has a B.A. from Columbia College and and M.S. in organizational leadership from Regis University.
Colorado, 7th Congressional District Demographics: 97.7% urban, 2.3% rural. 68.9% white, 19.6% Hispanic, 5.8% black, 2.9% Asian, 0.6% Native American, 0.1% other. Median household income: $46,149
Campaign: Mr. Frazier has campaigned on a platform of fiscal conservatism and social moderation, coupled with a strong military and advocacy for hunters and other sportsmen. He has raised more than $600,000 for his campaign. Third-party groups are also helping his candidacy, taking out half-million-dollar ads against his opponent.
Possible Historic Impact: If he wins, Mr. Frazier would become Colorado's first black Congressman ever. Also, the first black Republican Congressman ever from the West.
Allen West, 49 — "The Firebrand Colonel"
Plantation, Florida | Retired Army Lieutenant Colonel |
Conservative Republican
Out of the folks on this list, liberals are definitely most scared of Mr. West. U.S. President Barack Obama has campaigned against him. The Democratic-dominant Congressional Black Caucus has campaigned against him. The Democratic Party of Florida even "accidentally" released his Social Security number.
Why are they scared? For one, he is a staunch conservative, fervent supporter of the U.S. military, and no lover of Islam. He can round up the troops (his "Revolution" speech has garnered 2.3 million views on YouTube). He has raised a whopping $5.4 million - more than any other congressional challenger in America - for his congressional bid. Mr. West has a slight lead in the polls (although within the margin of error). Florida's 22nd Congressional District is a swing district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+1), but momentum is on Mr. West's side in an anti-incumbent election cycle. Especially since he garnered more votes in the Republican primary than all of the candidates in the Democratic primary combined received.
Background: Mr. West is the third of four generations in his family to serve in the U.S. military
Did you know that Mr. West is also a former high school teacher? He has a Bachelor's degree from the University of Tennessee. He has an M.A. in political science from Kansas State University, and a Master of Military Arts & Science (specialization: political theory; military history & operations) from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff Officer College. He served in the Iraq war, and as an adviser to the Afghan Army. Mr. West's military honors include the Bronze Star, Meritorious Service Medal, Army Commendation Medal, Army Achievement Medal, Valorous Unit Award.
A controversial figure, Mr. West is also known for a 2003 case where he fired a pistol past the head of an Iraqi police officer under interrogation for allegedly possessing information about a planned ambush against U.S. forces (he was later ordered to pay a $5,000 fine for misconduct and assault, but allowed to retire with full military benefits). His alleged ties to the Outlaws biker gang and a 2005 tax lien issue (since paid) has also caused some controversy.
Florida, 22nd Congressional District Demographics: 99.19% urban, 0.81% rural. 82.3% white, 10.7% Hispanic, 3.8% black, 1.7% Asian, 0.1% Native American, 0.2% other. Median household income: $51,200.
Campaign: Mr. West has promoted limited government, reducing government spending, stronger measures to combat Islamic terrorists, and restoring American exceptionalism.
Possible Historic Impact: If he is elected to Congress along with Mr. Scott, it would be the first time that two black Republicans have served in Congress at the same time since the mid-1990s. And two or more from the South, since the 1870s. He would also be Florida's first black Republican Congressman since Josiah Walls in 1876.
Not In His Favor, But Could Pull A Stunner
Bill Marcy, 64 — "The Ex-Cop"
Meridian, Mississippi | Retired Cop | Conservative Republican
The district's demographics don't favor him (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+12, and a Republican hasn't represented the district since 1987). However, internal polling from his campaign shows that Mr. Marcy is running neck-and-neck with incumbent Rep. Bernie Thompson (D-Miss.). Incumbent Rep. Thompson's vote margin has been significantly reduced in the past when facing a black Republican opponent (and that was when the black unemployment rate was half what it is now), who knows? While I wouldn't bet on it, a strong white Republican turnout and a weak black Democratic turnout could result in Mr. Marcy pulling a stunning upset on Election Night.
Background: A former Chicago cop for 9 years, Mr. Marcy as director of security for a variety of businesses. He now lives in Mississippi to care for his elderly mom.
Mississippi, 2nd Congressional District Demographics: 62.67% urban, 37.33% rural. 63.5% black, 35.0% white, 1.2% Hispanic, 0.4% Asian, 0.2% Native American, 0.6% other. Median household income: $26,894.
Campaign: Mr. Marcy as campaigned on a platform of limited government, constitutionalism, school choice, and natural rights.
Possible Historic Impact: If he is elected to Congress, Mr. Marcy would become the first black Republican Congressman from Mississippi since John Lynch in 1883.
Unlikely To Win
These candidates aren't likely to win, but they might be able to increase their party's vote total.
Charles Lollar, Maryland 5th Congressional District
The conservative Republican is running against the House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). A businessman, Mr. Lollar is also a Major in the Marine Corps Reserves. He is campaigning on a limited government platform. However, Mr. Lollar lacks the funds to toe up with Rep. Hoyer's campaign war chest in this mostly Democratic district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+11). The district also hasn't had a Republican rep since 1975.
Bill Randall, North Carolina 13th Congressional District
A slightly Democratic-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+5), this should theoretically be a toss-up race. It's an anti-incumbent year and momentum is with the Republican Party. However, the U.S. Navy retiree and insurance agency owner lacks campaign funds to mount a strong enough challenge to incumbent Rep. Brad Miller. Add to the mix that the district (which was re-established in 2003, after being eliminated in 1843) is trending Democratic in presidential elections. Unless third-party groups are doing the job on the conservative Republican's behalf, this ain't looking hot for Mr. Randall on Election Day.
Marvin Scott, Indiana 7th Congressional District
This is a majority-Democratic district (Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+14), having gone some redistricting in 2003. The Carson family has this district on lockdown (Rep. Julia Carson represented the district from 2003-2007; her grandson Rep. Andre Carson now represents the district) so Mr. Scott's chances are slim. However, a better-than-expected showing could raise the profile of this Butler University sociology professor and conservative Republican.
Extremely Unlikely To Win
These candidates have a very low chance of winning their races. The Cook Partisan Voting Index in the House candidates' Congressional districts ranges from D+20 to D+41 (i.e., they're running in staunchly Democratic districts). With the exception of Stephen Broden (who has raised almost as much money as the scandal-plagued, incumbent Congresswoman he is challenging), they've raised little money and have little ground support from their respective parties. At best, these candidates can shoot for a better-than-expected result and raise their profiles for future activities
Charlotte Bergmann (Tennessee 9th Congressional District): The small business owner and conservative Republican is running against Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) in this majority-black, Memphis-metro district. The Democratic-dominent Congressional Black Caucus campaigning for her white opponent and she lacks sufficient campaign funds.
Robert Broadus (conservative Republican, Maryland 4th Congressional District): The Navy veteran and conservative Republican is running against Rep. Donna Edwards in this majority-black, suburban Washington, D.C. district.
Stephen Broden (Texas 30th Congressional District): The conservative Republican preacher is running against Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), who has been plagued by a scandal involving diverting Congressional Black Caucus Foundation funds to her relatives (Rep. Johnson has since repaid the funds, which are going to needy Texas students). He has raised almost as much money as his opponent, was getting high-profile endorsements, and was poised to at least significantly cut into her vote margin. But recent comments supporting a "violent overthrow of the U.S. government" if there isn't change (comments that Mr. Broden claims were taken out of context) and pulled endorsements have probably ended his momentum.
Vince Danet (U.S. Virgin Islands Non-Voting Delegate District): The Navy veteran (where he was a naval aviator) and conservative Republican is running for an at-large seat that hasn't been held by a Republican since 1981.
Michael Faulkner (New York 15th Congressional District): The conservative Republican is running against longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.). Even though Rep. Rangel is plagued with scandal and RNC chairman Michael Steele recently stumped for Mr. Faulkner in Harlem, there's no way that Mr. Faulkner will unseat this political veteran.
Alvin Greene (South Carolina, U.S. Senate): The moderate Democrat and military veteran stunned America by coming out of nowhere to win the Democratic primary. He's running against Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C) with less than $5,000. He has been frozen out of support by the Democratic Party because of a pending federal obscenity case, and unusual behavior.
Isaac Hayes (Illinois 2nd Congressional District): The conservative Republican preacher is challenging Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. in metro Chicago.While he's gotten some endorsements and increased media attention in the wake of Rep. Jackson Jr.'s personal troubles, it won't be enough to unseat Rev. Jesse Jackson's son.
Star Parker (California 37th Congressional District): A former welfare recipient and single mother who has publicly talked about her four abortions before she transformed her life, the conservative Republican pundit is challenging Rep. Laura Richardson (D-Calif.). She has campaigned on limited government, and even affordable housing (via housing vouchers).
Chuck Smith (Virginia 3rd Congressional District): The former Marine and JAG officer is a conservative Republican attorney.running against Rep. Robert Scott (D-Va.).
U.S. Congressional Races: Bookerista Candidates
