Shamara Riley Commentary: Can Condoleezza Rice Be The Republicans' 'Great Black Hope'?

Condoleezza Rice

I pen a somewhat long op-ed over at theGrio arguing that internal Republican Party politics and demographic voting patterns say no for now and for 2016. Some excerpts: "More importantly, Dr. Rice would bring few black votes to the Republican side as a presidential or vice presidential candidate [in 2016]. While studies show that 21 percent of black Americans support a smaller government providing fewer services, 69 percent favor a larger government. Thus the black majority view and the Republican Party platform regarding the proper role of government are fundamentally at odds."

I zero in on how political trends do not favor a non-black GOP Hope: "Only 4 percent of black voters voted for the Republican Senator John McCain in the 2008 presidential campaign, compared with 31 percent of Hispanic voters. With Hispanic voters almost eight times likelier to swing their votes than black voters and the fact that Hispanic political clout will further increase over election cycles, political trends lie outside Black America for the 2016 presidential race. Thus, up-and-coming Hispanic Republican politicians – such as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) or New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez – are better positioned to actually deliver votes for the GOP."

However, there's still a short-term role for Condoleezza Rice within her political party: "Condoleezza Rice’s most useful next steps for her party are in swing states, where a small but significant swing in the black vote could tip things in Mitt Romney’s favor. This is a similar strategy to what George W. Bush successfully deployed in winning Ohio (and thus re-election) in 2004. As BlackElectorate.com publisher Cedric Muhammad points out, a Republican presidential candidate typically gets elected if he wins 10 percent (or more) of the overall black vote."